Climate services for resilient agriculture in Haiti Farmers globally are facing challenges associated with climate variability and change. In Haiti, where agriculture is predominantly non-mechanized and rainfed, smallholder farmers are severely affected by reduced yields and increases in operating costs. Since 2017, I have been leading research--supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID)--on climate risk management in Haiti's agricultural sector. One study—now published in Population and Environment--revealed a demand, by farmers, for collaborative efforts by data and extension providers to diversify the types of information provided to them, improve the reliability of existing forecasts and provide guidance with adaptation strategies. These results were used to inform the training of nearly 100 farmer advisers, three state meteorologists and over 500 farmers in the use of Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA)—an approach developed at the University of Reading, UK, by Dorward, Clarkson and Stern to training farming advisors and farmers (of all literacy levels) to use climate information and a suite of decision tools for planning purposes ahead of the agricultural season. Alongside a PICSA expert, I led an evaluation of the intervention on farmers' understanding and use of PICSA information and tools, and perceived effects on their farming and households. The results of the evaluation--now published in the Journal of Rural Studies--showed that training in the PICSA approach empowered 70% of survey respondents (63% women) to make informed decisions and adjust their traditional behavior, leading to successful adaptation strategies and higher financial and food security as well as social standing. This approach is being scaled up (with minimal support from our project) by Catholic Relief Services, and is projected to reach thousands of farmers in the South of Haiti by yearend 2020. These studies have important implications for future climate change adaptation interventions where extension services and climate information are limited.
Developing climate tools and products to inform USDA crop yield forecasts Forecasting crop yields is a complex and challenging task, further compounded by increasing cases of extreme, anomalous weather conditions (the likes of floods and heat waves) that occur in major crop production regions throughout the United States. From 2015 until 2017, I worked on a study that was commissioned and supported by by the United States Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS). I developed an Agricultural Reference Index for Drought (ARID) that accounts for the soil-plant-atmosphere relationship in this region and can be used to monitor droughts within the state. Additionally, I quantified the response of maize to heat stress across sensitive phenological phases such as tasseling and grain filling. I studied the 2012 cropping season, which was drier and warmer than normal, relative to 2010, a year during which close to average conditions were observed. By analyzing a simulation of maize phenology during these years, I demonstrated that the higher temperatures from 2012 resulted in a shorter life cycle and earlier tasseling among the maize crops. This work provided evidence that by combining meteorological data with canopy optical properties responses, we can significantly improve our monitoring and quantification of heat stress effects on maize vegetation response and associated production concerns as long as crop phenology is taken into account.
Modeling water resources and climate variability in the Southwest Indian Ocean The availability of water resources poses serious consequences for any society in a given region and for the environment as a whole. Small island developing states (SIDS) offer advantageous and unique opportunities for observing and understanding the impact of environmental change on human populations, and, subsequently, the effects of these growing human populations on natural resources. Densely populated SIDS are hypersensitive to environmental change and, as such, serve as early warning systems for the United States and other mainlands. Given the fact that SIDS are small systems with defined physical boundaries, studies focusing on the impacts of environmental change on human populations are feasible in a shorter amount of time and require less resources. For similar reasons, successful adaptation and change (e.g. climate change adaptation) is also easier to discern on SIDS. Because of this, they serve as strong examples for larger, more complex systems. Bearing this in mind, this study focused on Mauritius—an Indian Ocean island possessing a robust archive of historical weather data—and provided a baseline understanding of how quasi-predictable drivers of rainfall variations in the Indian Ocean can yield crucial information regarding seasonal weather forecasts and similar weather warning systems in Mauritius and other islands in the region. I also generated high-resolution estimates of monthly rainfall totals from 1997 to 2011; and incorporated them into a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model, designed to aid integrated water resources planning, to measure the effect of projected climate changes on streamflow.
Mapping forest disturbance and management in the Southeast US From 2011 to 2015, I took part in a project funded by the US National Science Foundation centered on defining the location, extent, and temporal dynamics of land management practices. Specifically, I researched and implemented original modeling approaches and methodologies for the characterization of management activities and disturbances on forested lands. My team and I used satellite images from a diverse array of satellite sources to map both the type and intensity of forest disturbance–distinguishing between low and high intensity fire and mechanical disturbance such as thinning or clear cut harvests, and management activities including production, ecological forestry and preservation. We also contributed to a framework that enables geoscientists to assess the implications of spatial and temporal scaling of stand-level hypotheses to regional domains. This work has been central to the goal of effectively measuring and monitoring both land cover change and the records of disturbance suppression and support on the nationwide landscape, paving the way for the development of novel methodologies that determine the realistic scales requisite for mapping land use and land cover in forested regions.
Elephant impacts on Miombo Woodland in Malawi From 2008 until 2011, I worked on a study that was both commissioned and supported by the African Parks Network, UF Geography, and the Malawi Department of National Parks and Wildlife. As a principal investigator on this project, I identified the risk factors associated with elephant browsing on large, miombo woodland tree habitats in Majete, a protected portion of land in the southwestern region of Malawi. Because the animals have such an important influence on an area’s vegetation composition and overall ecosystem processes—standing as the primary agents of habitat change in all of Africa—this was especially important for environmentalists and ecologists working in protected areas where elephants are enclosed. The results of this study broadened the scientific community’s knowledge of how time- and site-specific factors impact elephant browsing and, consequently, how those aforementioned factors stand as viable forecasting components for predicting future habitat transformations. Additionally, this work effectively revealed how those factors are feasibly utilized for means of manipulating the grazing range of elephants within a given reserve, which is of great import to conservationists and environmentalists on an international scale.
Assessing the host status of common citrus cultivars against the Mediterranean fruit fly (Medfly) in Western Australia In this study, commissioned and co-supported by Western Australia's Department of Agriculture and Curtin University, I examined three citrus cultivars (oranges, mandarins and lemons) and a non-citrus control for attractiveness and suitability to Medly--Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann), a pest of citrus in parts of Western Australia-- in the field and in the laboratory using choice and no-choice experiments, and life-table analysis. The study provides a robust justification for reducing the length of cold-treatment exposure periods required to disinfest lemons. which resulted in more than 500 farmers receiving training. Alongside a PICSA expert, I led an impact evaluation, consisting of quantitative surveys and in-depth qualitative interviews, of the intervention on farmers' understanding and use of PICSA information and tools, and perceived effects on their farming and households. We demonstrated that training in the PICSA approach had empowered 70% of survey respondents (63% women) to make informed decisions and adjust their traditional behavior, leading to successful adaptation strategies and higher financial and food security as well as social standing. This approach is being scaled up (with minimal support from our project) by Catholic Relief Services, and is projected to reach thousands of farmers in the South of Haiti by yearend 2020.